Correlation is not causation, part 999

A few weeks ago the Economist’s blog had a piece with the tag line “How increases in computing power have driven higher share turnover”. It shows a nice chart with two lines rising inexorably upwards, pretty close together, one representing the transistor count in integrated circuits from 1947 to date, and the other shares traded […]

Confidence and causality

Ok, it’s a bit trite, but human behaviour is really important, and a good understanding of human behaviour is a goal for people in many different fields. Marketing, education and social policy all seek to influence our behaviour in different ways and for different purposes — that’s surely what the whole Nudge thing is all […]

Getting rates in a mess

Another good blog post from Understanding Uncertainty: for once not based on a howler from the British press. Instead, it’s based on a howler from the German press – High suicide rate in German forces serving abroad – every fifth soldier takes his own life. They actually meant to say one in five of deaths among […]