Actuarial Uncertainty

Getting rates in a mess

Another good blog post from Understanding Uncertainty: for once not based on a howler from the British press. Instead, it’s based on a howler from the German press – High suicide rate in German forces serving abroad – every fifth soldier takes his own life.¬†They actually meant to say one in five of deaths among soldiers serving abroad.

The post goes on to discuss whether the suicide rate is higher or lower than would be expected, and along the way gives some explanations of the concepts behind exposed to risk (without actually using the term). A great example of how to explain something that can get pretty technical in an uncomplicated way. If only most actuaries could do the same.