I’ve been working with risk and uncertainty for over thirty years. For much of that time I’ve been developing and critiquing models: from little ones (small spreadsheets) to big ones (insurers’ internal models for Solvency II), in the financial world (stock lending) and elsewhere (adaptive scheduling). Recent projects have covered pension scheme employer covenants, cash flow modelling for SMEs, retirement and disability benefits for self employed workers in South Africa, and the economic effects of catastrophic events on financial networks, cities and countries.

I also advise on the practical effects of climate change. What are the possible effects on your organisation? On its operations, customers and suppliers? How likely are they, and what possibilities are there for mitigating them? Or even taking advantage of them?

Modelling

I know about modelling. Does your model do what it should? Come to that, what should it be doing? What about the systems and controls for developing and using it? I can help you answer these questions and more, for models of all sizes — from simple spreadsheets through to large complex systems — and in many different application areas. As George Box said, all models are wrong but some are useful. I’ll help make sure your models are useful.

I’m equally at home doing hands-on programming with software engineers or actuaries and developing strategy with FTSE 100 company board members. I’ll do whatever is needed, including:

• Model design and development
• Model review and critique
• Software development and management
• Interim development manager or technical director
• Processes for user-developed models, including spreadsheets
• Due diligence on software development
• Board training and presentations

I’ve recently developed a web-based application, Asteria, for modelling cashflows for SMEs and others.

If you’d like to know more, or would like to discuss how I might be able to help you, please get in touch.