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I’ve been recently been working with the Centre for Risk Studies in Cambridge on some extreme scenarios: one-in-200, or even less likely events. It’s been an interesting challenge, not least because it’s very difficult to make things extreme enough. We find ourselves saying that the step in the scenario that we’re working would never actually […] Read more

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Take reports of changed pension deficits with large amounts of salt. It’s always important to put news in context, and to think about what’s going on underneath, especially when you read a story based on a survey or report produced by a consultant. And yes, I am a consultant, and that applies to surveys or […] Read more

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Some links I’ve found interesting recently: Uses and abuses of crowdsourcing (via Bruce Schneier) Does High Frequency Trading improve liquidity? A Maserati for ¬£1 – your best bet is roulette Game theory in a fairly literal sense Much more influential than Steve Jobs

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Understanding uncertainty, David Spiegelhalter’s site, is an absolute must for anyone who reasons about or models uncertainty.¬†David Spiegelhalter, Mike Pearson and Ian Short have just had a paper about Visualising uncertainty published by Science. If it’s anything like any of the content of the web site, it’s a must read.

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